Griffey's a Natural

I remember watching games with Ken Griffey, Jr. waving his black bat around when I was young and constantly thinking, how is it that Seattle has a superstar like him? He was the prototype. The Peyton Manning of baseball 20 some odd years ago. He was bread to be an excellent baseball player. No juice. No enhancements. Nothing. Just pure unadulterated genetics from his father. Like two prized racehorses mating to make one great racehorse. Griff was meant for greatness. Griff was the ultimate throwback. I even heard rumors that he was such a great athlete that he didn’t even need to bother stretching, lifting weights or any other enhancement that might propel him into greater stardom than what was already set in place for him.

As a Seattle Mariners’ fan, I watched him hit homeruns in the Kingdome and make diving catch after diving catch in centerfield like a hound. He owned centerfield. His arm was strong, his legs were fast and his personality was a breath of fresh air in a sport that prided itself in its history. A history that was fading with drug abuse and being overrun with older, whiter players.

Needless to say, the MLB needed the “Kid” more than the Kid needed the MLB. He was on an early mark to break Hank Aaron’s all-time homerun record of 755. He was a golden boy sent from above to break the greatest record in sports. Year in and year out, Griffey was a homerun threat to not just break Aaron’s career mark, but Roger Maris’ season mark of 61 set in 1961. Each year he inched a bit closer and a bit closer. In 1994 (the strike shortened year), Griffey had the best chance at breaking that record. If it weren’t for greed and terrible timing, he would have broken the record four years prior to Mark McGwire. And then something interesting happened. Science interfered in sports. Not that steroids was brand new to sports, but it became a noticeable difference in the mid-90’s. Players not only were blowing up like balloons, but the numbers were being inflated more than today’s real-estate market.

It was baseball’s dirty little secret, which wasn’t much of a secret within clubhouses or locker rooms. Players, coaches and trainers did an outstanding job keeping it a secret from the public. But chicks dig the long ball. And Griffey (juice free) was popping out home runs at a record pace. So how could the rest of the players keep up with a guy who is a genetic freak? Become scientific freaks themselves. Like a science-fiction novel, players started catching up and soon passing Griffey like a semi-truck passing up a Porsche. Griffey couldn’t keep up. Nor did he want to keep up (at least not in that fashion). And it showed. While Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa stole 1998’s season and captivated the nation with their epic home run race, Griffey went about his business. He was still on mark for Aaron’s record; Maris’ became quickly out of reach with McGwire’s 70th shot heard round the world.

“At least he can still catch Aaron, something McGwire and Sosa probably won’t do,” I thought. Then came Barry Bonds’ lust for the spotlight. His urgency to dethrone McGwire and Sosa was unparallel. Imagine Michael Jordan’s desire to win so much that he began taking drugs so he can become invincible (not that MJ wasn’t already).

So let’s cut to the chase. Everyone knows the history of the Steroid Era. Griffey was on the mark to become our greatest home run hitter until McGwire, Sosa and Bonds made it obvious that in today’s game, it’s near impossible to keep healthy with the schedule and pitchers and the demand from us fans to keep up the rate at which Griffey was at.

Then, the unspeakable happened. Griffey all of a sudden grew a bit of a head and wanted out of Seattle, which just built Safeco, which just so happened to be built as a pitcher’s ballpark. This pissed off Griffey for he wanted No. 755 next to his name. So he went to Cincinnati and was then “cursed” so-to-speak and became the most injury prone player in the game, missing nearly three full seasons from 2002-2004.

Now, the reason why I’m digging this stuff up is because of the wake of McGwire’s recent admission of using juice. His tears made me a bit irritated. He wants sympathy and anyone who doesn’t think he wants sympathy, just look at his admission. He claims to have taken juice to stay healthy and didn’t think it had any affect on his numbers. So I did some numbering. Rain + No Job = Boredom. So I started running some other numbers and got to thinking. What if Griffey took the juice to stay healthy like McGwire claimed he did. What would his numbers look like? If Griffey didn’t get hurt between 02-04, what would his numbers look like? And if he juiced between those three years to stay healthy, how much more inflated would Griffey’s numbers be? Without a question of a doubt (without any evidence pointing Griffey to even looking at steroids, had he stayed healthy his career numbers would be frightening) his juiced numbers would rival video game stats.

So, lets do some stats. In 22 season Griffey had totaled 630 home runs, 1,829 RBIs and 2,763 hits. Those are already Hall of Fame numbers if he retired today. But he’s not. Those numbers are still climbing no matter how chubby he is now.

Here are his career numbers for HR, RBI and Hits:

Griffey
HR RBI Hits

1989 16 61 120
1990 22 80 179
1991 22 100 179
1992 27 103 174
1993 45 109 180
*1994 40 90 140
^1995 17 42 67
1996 49 140 165
1997 56 147 185
1998 56 146 180
1999 48 134 173
2000 40 118 141
2001 22 65 104
^2002 8 23 52
^2003 13 26 41
^2004 20 60 76
2005 35 92 148
2006 27 72 108
2007 30 93 146
2008 18 71 122
2009 19 57 83

Total 630 1829 2763

*Strike shortened season
^Injury plagued seasons

In 1995’s magical season for the Mariners, Griffey was out with a broken right wrist from a diving catch where he crashed into the centerfield wall. I was at that game. It was amazing. Proof that he was the best at that time. And the thing is, he still popped 17 dingers and was ready in time for Seattle’s greatest post-season ever. And to top things off, he scored the winning run in game 5 against New York. Some things are just fitting. His smile while being dog-piled by the entire team has to be one of the greatest images in Seattle history.

But let’s get back to the topic.

Here are McGwire’s numbers. I squeezed out certain years because I wanted to focus on his juiced years (JY) from 1989-90 (his own admission) and from 1995-99 (obvious stat increase which didn’t need any admission from his tears):

McGwire
HR RBI Hits
Juiced Years
1989 33 95 113
1990 39 108 123
Off Years
1991 22 75 97
1992 42 104 125
^1993 9 24 28
*^1994 9 25 34
JY
1995 39 90 87
1996 52 113 132
1997 58 123 148
1998 70 147 152
1999 65 147 145
OY
2000 32 73 72


McGwire admitted he used the juice to get healthy again and by the looks of it, he was right. They helped greatly. From 1991-92, his “natural stats” were good enough for any all-star. But beginning in 1995, they began to blossom along with his muscles. Then they really took off. But in 2000 they quickly dropped. From 1995-98, there was a +31 home run differential, which could also be equated as a 45 percent increase of power alone. In eight seasons of juice, McGwire went from 39 home runs to 70 in a matter of three seasons and when he hit 65 in 1999, his juice ran out and so did his home runs, RBIs and hits. You can’t tell me the juice didn’t help his totals. He was one of the most feared hitters in the league. He holds the record for career at-bat to home run ratio of 10. With a 45 percent increase of power, Griffey’s numbers would be like creating a baseball player on MLB The Show (a video game for all of you who aren’t gamers) and setting all of his attributes to 99 and playing the entire season on easy.

While we’re on the subject of juice, the obvious next subject would be Barry Lamar Bonds. Now, this is a tricky study if I’ve ever attempted one. First, because Bonds has never admitted nor has ever tested positive for juice. There are mere speculations and indictments. Assumptions, which I don’t like to do because when you assume something, you make an ass out of you and me (you like?)

But with Bonds’ record 73rd home run and 762 all-time mark, it’s hard not to speculate (because it’s so much damn fun) what Griffey’s numbers would look like had he (A) not been injured between 2002-04 and (B) if Griffey took McGwire’s advice and taken juice to stay healthy, what would Griffey’s juiced numbers portray. It’s scary actually.

Here are some of Bonds’ numbers:

Bonds
HR RBI Hits

1991 25 116 149
1992 34 103 147
1993 46 123 181
*1994 37 81 122
1995 33 104 149
1996 42 129 159
1997 40 101 155
1998 37 122 167
1999 34 83 93
JY
2000 49 106 147
2001 73 137 156
2002 46 110 149
2003 45 90 133
2004 45 101 135


I didn’t find it necessary to point out Bonds’ Pittsburgh days because they were normal. Instead I wanted to focus on his obvious stat increase from 2000-2004, a five year span where Bonds utterly dominated baseball pitchers so much that he had 258 home runs and 232 walks in 2004. He holds the records for career walks (2,558) and intentional walks (688), which is amazing intimidation. Bonds’ career marks are 762 home runs, 1,996 RBIs and 2,935 hits. So he only needs one more season to get 3,000 hits and 700 home runs, something that nobody and I mean nobody would ever think is possible. The only problem is, is that he’s a complete dick and he ruins teams so much that even the Pirates wouldn’t even think twice about bringing him in.

So here are some facts. Between 1991 and 1999, Bonds had a 36 HR average, never eclipsing 50. His highest was 46 in 1993. These numbers are quite similar to Griffey’s. So similar that between 2000 and 2004, there was a +15 home run increase between his 1999 season and 2000 season, which is calculated out to be a 30 percent increase of plate production, approximately. A far cry from McGwire’s 45 percent, which probably means Big Mac was putting juice in his Big Mac’s and eating them like ice cream sandwiches.

If you add plate appearances and decrease his walk total, he would have approximately 600 more at-bats. Six-hundred! There’s no telling how many more dingers Bonds would have added to his 2004 total of 45. Probably 80 home runs. And during those years, his AB:HR ratio was something like this: 9.8, 6.5, 8.8, 8.7 and 8.3. So he was already hitting home runs at alarming rates. During his Juiced Years, Bonds averaged 51 home runs per year. Amazing.

But let’s return to our topic: Griffey’s what-if’s. In 2002, Ken Griffey, Jr. went down with a torn quad (ouch!). Season over. Next season (2003), another injury and 2004 was not much different. His season total for home runs were: 8, 13 and 20. His RBIs were 23, 26 and 60. His hits were 52, 41, 76. All respective to each year.

Hypothetically, those should have been Griffey’s ultra-prime years as was Bonds’, which both played during a similar time frame (Griffey 1989-Present, Bonds 1986-2004).

Griffey’s averages for his healthy years are telling (35 HR, 102 RBIs and 152 hits through 13 seasons). I think his hit average might be the most impressive, something Griffey never was noticed for because his home runs were so much more fun to follow.

Because Griffey and Bonds’ numbers were so similar, I used a projected 30 percent increase in Griffey’s numbers, much like how Bonds’ numbers were inflated.

Here is a formula that I came up with: # + Avg(Y) =.

With # = career stats through today, Avg = average, Y= number of years injured.

With this formula, Griffey’s numbers increase without the use of performance enhancing drugs.

HR: 630 + 35(3) = 735
RBI: 1829 + 102(3) = 2135
Hits: 2763 + 152(3) = 3219

So with the three seasons that Griffey missed, even with his career averages, he would have over 700 home runs and over 3,000 hits, something nobody had ever done before. Something Bonds doesn’t even have.

But again, what would his numbers look like if he used juice to stay healthy. How much bigger would he have gotten and how much better would he have gotten.

With a 30 percent increase, let’s do another formula to calculate what Griffey’s numbers would look like versus Bonds.

I used this formula with (avg x %) + avg(Y) + CT.

Avg = career average through 13 seasons, % = percentage increase, Y = number of years injured, CT = career total.

With this formula, if Griffey used PEDs, here are some interesting numbers.

HR: (35 x .3) + 35(3) + 630 = 766
RBI: (102 x .3) + 102(3) + 1829 = 2226
Hits: (152 x .3) + 152(3) + 2763 = 3355.

So there you have it. To say the least, Griffey’s home runs would rival Bonds’ record of 762. With all these numbers being approximated, Griffey would also have over 3,000 hits.

I also have to equate the number of walks Bonds had amassed over his dominance. In 2004 alone, Bonds was walked 232 times. He was walked a total of 2,558 times (688 of those were intentional). So we have to assume that if Griffey was on the juice, he would have been given the same type of treatment. Griffey’s at-bats would have plummeted and so would his numbers. So 766 is only a approximated number without factoring in an assumed increase of walks. Both players were playing in the National League at that time, so the difference in leagues wouldn’t matter. Griffey’s hits would probably be around 3,100 with the amount of walks he would have been given, and his RBI total would be decreased by about 200 because of that same stat. Not to mention that during Griffey’s Reds years, he too, was on a team that didn’t give a whole lot of run support.

So I guess what I’m trying to get at here, is some sort of proof that not only did Bonds use PEDs, but if Griffey did, he would have rivaled Bonds in the most exciting career race in sports history. To our public knowledge, Griffey didn’t. And it showed due to his propensity of injury-prone seasons that sent him to oblivion.

So in an era of steroids where every record is being questioned and every player’s credibility is under fire, baseball purists should know this: Griffey was a as a pure player ever. He never bulked up and his numbers never inflated. In fact, Griffey did some of the opposite. While players like Bonds and McGwire were exceeding, Griffey (in what should have been his prime years) faded away. A sad tale of sorts, but a truer tale of someone who didn’t need any enhancements; someone who was a natural in every phase of the game.

And on a side note, watching McGwire cry, I only kept thinking, how in the world did the only credible person that rose out of the dust with his honesty was a guy like Jose Canseco? Not to say that he’s a stand-up person, but I’m just saying.