Griffey's a Natural

I remember watching games with Ken Griffey, Jr. waving his black bat around when I was young and constantly thinking, how is it that Seattle has a superstar like him? He was the prototype. The Peyton Manning of baseball 20 some odd years ago. He was bread to be an excellent baseball player. No juice. No enhancements. Nothing. Just pure unadulterated genetics from his father. Like two prized racehorses mating to make one great racehorse. Griff was meant for greatness. Griff was the ultimate throwback. I even heard rumors that he was such a great athlete that he didn’t even need to bother stretching, lifting weights or any other enhancement that might propel him into greater stardom than what was already set in place for him.

As a Seattle Mariners’ fan, I watched him hit homeruns in the Kingdome and make diving catch after diving catch in centerfield like a hound. He owned centerfield. His arm was strong, his legs were fast and his personality was a breath of fresh air in a sport that prided itself in its history. A history that was fading with drug abuse and being overrun with older, whiter players.

Needless to say, the MLB needed the “Kid” more than the Kid needed the MLB. He was on an early mark to break Hank Aaron’s all-time homerun record of 755. He was a golden boy sent from above to break the greatest record in sports. Year in and year out, Griffey was a homerun threat to not just break Aaron’s career mark, but Roger Maris’ season mark of 61 set in 1961. Each year he inched a bit closer and a bit closer. In 1994 (the strike shortened year), Griffey had the best chance at breaking that record. If it weren’t for greed and terrible timing, he would have broken the record four years prior to Mark McGwire. And then something interesting happened. Science interfered in sports. Not that steroids was brand new to sports, but it became a noticeable difference in the mid-90’s. Players not only were blowing up like balloons, but the numbers were being inflated more than today’s real-estate market.

It was baseball’s dirty little secret, which wasn’t much of a secret within clubhouses or locker rooms. Players, coaches and trainers did an outstanding job keeping it a secret from the public. But chicks dig the long ball. And Griffey (juice free) was popping out home runs at a record pace. So how could the rest of the players keep up with a guy who is a genetic freak? Become scientific freaks themselves. Like a science-fiction novel, players started catching up and soon passing Griffey like a semi-truck passing up a Porsche. Griffey couldn’t keep up. Nor did he want to keep up (at least not in that fashion). And it showed. While Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa stole 1998’s season and captivated the nation with their epic home run race, Griffey went about his business. He was still on mark for Aaron’s record; Maris’ became quickly out of reach with McGwire’s 70th shot heard round the world.

“At least he can still catch Aaron, something McGwire and Sosa probably won’t do,” I thought. Then came Barry Bonds’ lust for the spotlight. His urgency to dethrone McGwire and Sosa was unparallel. Imagine Michael Jordan’s desire to win so much that he began taking drugs so he can become invincible (not that MJ wasn’t already).

So let’s cut to the chase. Everyone knows the history of the Steroid Era. Griffey was on the mark to become our greatest home run hitter until McGwire, Sosa and Bonds made it obvious that in today’s game, it’s near impossible to keep healthy with the schedule and pitchers and the demand from us fans to keep up the rate at which Griffey was at.

Then, the unspeakable happened. Griffey all of a sudden grew a bit of a head and wanted out of Seattle, which just built Safeco, which just so happened to be built as a pitcher’s ballpark. This pissed off Griffey for he wanted No. 755 next to his name. So he went to Cincinnati and was then “cursed” so-to-speak and became the most injury prone player in the game, missing nearly three full seasons from 2002-2004.

Now, the reason why I’m digging this stuff up is because of the wake of McGwire’s recent admission of using juice. His tears made me a bit irritated. He wants sympathy and anyone who doesn’t think he wants sympathy, just look at his admission. He claims to have taken juice to stay healthy and didn’t think it had any affect on his numbers. So I did some numbering. Rain + No Job = Boredom. So I started running some other numbers and got to thinking. What if Griffey took the juice to stay healthy like McGwire claimed he did. What would his numbers look like? If Griffey didn’t get hurt between 02-04, what would his numbers look like? And if he juiced between those three years to stay healthy, how much more inflated would Griffey’s numbers be? Without a question of a doubt (without any evidence pointing Griffey to even looking at steroids, had he stayed healthy his career numbers would be frightening) his juiced numbers would rival video game stats.

So, lets do some stats. In 22 season Griffey had totaled 630 home runs, 1,829 RBIs and 2,763 hits. Those are already Hall of Fame numbers if he retired today. But he’s not. Those numbers are still climbing no matter how chubby he is now.

Here are his career numbers for HR, RBI and Hits:

Griffey
HR RBI Hits

1989 16 61 120
1990 22 80 179
1991 22 100 179
1992 27 103 174
1993 45 109 180
*1994 40 90 140
^1995 17 42 67
1996 49 140 165
1997 56 147 185
1998 56 146 180
1999 48 134 173
2000 40 118 141
2001 22 65 104
^2002 8 23 52
^2003 13 26 41
^2004 20 60 76
2005 35 92 148
2006 27 72 108
2007 30 93 146
2008 18 71 122
2009 19 57 83

Total 630 1829 2763

*Strike shortened season
^Injury plagued seasons

In 1995’s magical season for the Mariners, Griffey was out with a broken right wrist from a diving catch where he crashed into the centerfield wall. I was at that game. It was amazing. Proof that he was the best at that time. And the thing is, he still popped 17 dingers and was ready in time for Seattle’s greatest post-season ever. And to top things off, he scored the winning run in game 5 against New York. Some things are just fitting. His smile while being dog-piled by the entire team has to be one of the greatest images in Seattle history.

But let’s get back to the topic.

Here are McGwire’s numbers. I squeezed out certain years because I wanted to focus on his juiced years (JY) from 1989-90 (his own admission) and from 1995-99 (obvious stat increase which didn’t need any admission from his tears):

McGwire
HR RBI Hits
Juiced Years
1989 33 95 113
1990 39 108 123
Off Years
1991 22 75 97
1992 42 104 125
^1993 9 24 28
*^1994 9 25 34
JY
1995 39 90 87
1996 52 113 132
1997 58 123 148
1998 70 147 152
1999 65 147 145
OY
2000 32 73 72


McGwire admitted he used the juice to get healthy again and by the looks of it, he was right. They helped greatly. From 1991-92, his “natural stats” were good enough for any all-star. But beginning in 1995, they began to blossom along with his muscles. Then they really took off. But in 2000 they quickly dropped. From 1995-98, there was a +31 home run differential, which could also be equated as a 45 percent increase of power alone. In eight seasons of juice, McGwire went from 39 home runs to 70 in a matter of three seasons and when he hit 65 in 1999, his juice ran out and so did his home runs, RBIs and hits. You can’t tell me the juice didn’t help his totals. He was one of the most feared hitters in the league. He holds the record for career at-bat to home run ratio of 10. With a 45 percent increase of power, Griffey’s numbers would be like creating a baseball player on MLB The Show (a video game for all of you who aren’t gamers) and setting all of his attributes to 99 and playing the entire season on easy.

While we’re on the subject of juice, the obvious next subject would be Barry Lamar Bonds. Now, this is a tricky study if I’ve ever attempted one. First, because Bonds has never admitted nor has ever tested positive for juice. There are mere speculations and indictments. Assumptions, which I don’t like to do because when you assume something, you make an ass out of you and me (you like?)

But with Bonds’ record 73rd home run and 762 all-time mark, it’s hard not to speculate (because it’s so much damn fun) what Griffey’s numbers would look like had he (A) not been injured between 2002-04 and (B) if Griffey took McGwire’s advice and taken juice to stay healthy, what would Griffey’s juiced numbers portray. It’s scary actually.

Here are some of Bonds’ numbers:

Bonds
HR RBI Hits

1991 25 116 149
1992 34 103 147
1993 46 123 181
*1994 37 81 122
1995 33 104 149
1996 42 129 159
1997 40 101 155
1998 37 122 167
1999 34 83 93
JY
2000 49 106 147
2001 73 137 156
2002 46 110 149
2003 45 90 133
2004 45 101 135


I didn’t find it necessary to point out Bonds’ Pittsburgh days because they were normal. Instead I wanted to focus on his obvious stat increase from 2000-2004, a five year span where Bonds utterly dominated baseball pitchers so much that he had 258 home runs and 232 walks in 2004. He holds the records for career walks (2,558) and intentional walks (688), which is amazing intimidation. Bonds’ career marks are 762 home runs, 1,996 RBIs and 2,935 hits. So he only needs one more season to get 3,000 hits and 700 home runs, something that nobody and I mean nobody would ever think is possible. The only problem is, is that he’s a complete dick and he ruins teams so much that even the Pirates wouldn’t even think twice about bringing him in.

So here are some facts. Between 1991 and 1999, Bonds had a 36 HR average, never eclipsing 50. His highest was 46 in 1993. These numbers are quite similar to Griffey’s. So similar that between 2000 and 2004, there was a +15 home run increase between his 1999 season and 2000 season, which is calculated out to be a 30 percent increase of plate production, approximately. A far cry from McGwire’s 45 percent, which probably means Big Mac was putting juice in his Big Mac’s and eating them like ice cream sandwiches.

If you add plate appearances and decrease his walk total, he would have approximately 600 more at-bats. Six-hundred! There’s no telling how many more dingers Bonds would have added to his 2004 total of 45. Probably 80 home runs. And during those years, his AB:HR ratio was something like this: 9.8, 6.5, 8.8, 8.7 and 8.3. So he was already hitting home runs at alarming rates. During his Juiced Years, Bonds averaged 51 home runs per year. Amazing.

But let’s return to our topic: Griffey’s what-if’s. In 2002, Ken Griffey, Jr. went down with a torn quad (ouch!). Season over. Next season (2003), another injury and 2004 was not much different. His season total for home runs were: 8, 13 and 20. His RBIs were 23, 26 and 60. His hits were 52, 41, 76. All respective to each year.

Hypothetically, those should have been Griffey’s ultra-prime years as was Bonds’, which both played during a similar time frame (Griffey 1989-Present, Bonds 1986-2004).

Griffey’s averages for his healthy years are telling (35 HR, 102 RBIs and 152 hits through 13 seasons). I think his hit average might be the most impressive, something Griffey never was noticed for because his home runs were so much more fun to follow.

Because Griffey and Bonds’ numbers were so similar, I used a projected 30 percent increase in Griffey’s numbers, much like how Bonds’ numbers were inflated.

Here is a formula that I came up with: # + Avg(Y) =.

With # = career stats through today, Avg = average, Y= number of years injured.

With this formula, Griffey’s numbers increase without the use of performance enhancing drugs.

HR: 630 + 35(3) = 735
RBI: 1829 + 102(3) = 2135
Hits: 2763 + 152(3) = 3219

So with the three seasons that Griffey missed, even with his career averages, he would have over 700 home runs and over 3,000 hits, something nobody had ever done before. Something Bonds doesn’t even have.

But again, what would his numbers look like if he used juice to stay healthy. How much bigger would he have gotten and how much better would he have gotten.

With a 30 percent increase, let’s do another formula to calculate what Griffey’s numbers would look like versus Bonds.

I used this formula with (avg x %) + avg(Y) + CT.

Avg = career average through 13 seasons, % = percentage increase, Y = number of years injured, CT = career total.

With this formula, if Griffey used PEDs, here are some interesting numbers.

HR: (35 x .3) + 35(3) + 630 = 766
RBI: (102 x .3) + 102(3) + 1829 = 2226
Hits: (152 x .3) + 152(3) + 2763 = 3355.

So there you have it. To say the least, Griffey’s home runs would rival Bonds’ record of 762. With all these numbers being approximated, Griffey would also have over 3,000 hits.

I also have to equate the number of walks Bonds had amassed over his dominance. In 2004 alone, Bonds was walked 232 times. He was walked a total of 2,558 times (688 of those were intentional). So we have to assume that if Griffey was on the juice, he would have been given the same type of treatment. Griffey’s at-bats would have plummeted and so would his numbers. So 766 is only a approximated number without factoring in an assumed increase of walks. Both players were playing in the National League at that time, so the difference in leagues wouldn’t matter. Griffey’s hits would probably be around 3,100 with the amount of walks he would have been given, and his RBI total would be decreased by about 200 because of that same stat. Not to mention that during Griffey’s Reds years, he too, was on a team that didn’t give a whole lot of run support.

So I guess what I’m trying to get at here, is some sort of proof that not only did Bonds use PEDs, but if Griffey did, he would have rivaled Bonds in the most exciting career race in sports history. To our public knowledge, Griffey didn’t. And it showed due to his propensity of injury-prone seasons that sent him to oblivion.

So in an era of steroids where every record is being questioned and every player’s credibility is under fire, baseball purists should know this: Griffey was a as a pure player ever. He never bulked up and his numbers never inflated. In fact, Griffey did some of the opposite. While players like Bonds and McGwire were exceeding, Griffey (in what should have been his prime years) faded away. A sad tale of sorts, but a truer tale of someone who didn’t need any enhancements; someone who was a natural in every phase of the game.

And on a side note, watching McGwire cry, I only kept thinking, how in the world did the only credible person that rose out of the dust with his honesty was a guy like Jose Canseco? Not to say that he’s a stand-up person, but I’m just saying.

Mora gone fishing

Well, Jim Mora, Jr., hailed successor to Mike Holmgren and local boy, has been canned by the Seattle Seahawks today. No more than a few hours ago, I got a text from a buddy stating the fact. This is obviously big news for Seahawk fans and sports fans alike.

Jay Glazer once again broke big news of this development. Which leads me to ask, how does Jay Glazer get all of the good news breaks? I mean, he's everywhere.

Even with the gray weather everywhere, for some reason this news gave me a little pep in my step. Here's a reason why I think there's a little pep in the fan's steps. Mora never felt like a true head coach. There were things leading up to Mora's firing that just made sense from a fan's point of view. From a sports writer's point of view. A year ago when Mora was placed as a successor to the legend of Mike Holmgren, it felt a bit pushed. As if former GM Tim Ruskell wanted us to like Mora whether we did or not. Yes, he was a local boy and went to University of Washington. And yes, he's buddy-buddy with local sports personality Hugh Millen. But there was something missing. We felt obligated to like Mora because of his Northwest ties. And so we tried. And tried. And tried. But things never really clicked with Mora. Like I said, it felt forced. Like it was of convenience that we just kind of settled for Mora.

Now, why would he have been fired? Mora never felt like he was one of us. He never felt like a true Seahawk. First off, it wasn't his 5-11 record that got him fired. It wasn't even losing four in a row to end the season. It's how they lost. It's how he handled those 11 losses. I was at the Bears-Seahawks game where I witnessed not only a communication breakdown between the fans and team, a frustrating turn of events that led Seneca Wallace and the entire offense to become utterly helpless, and the defense look as if it were in the preseason, but a turning point in our franchise. Losing those last four losses of the end of the season by a total of 106-24. 106-24! There is no excuse for a team to look that bad. To throw a kicker under the bus. We have a new expectation of this team. Paul Allen knows it. Tod Lewieke knows it. To be successful, the fans have to be outspoken. The fans have to look for more. The owners and CEO's can't settle for mediocrity. And the firing of Mora proves that the Seahawks are finally serious again about winning.

Now, onto potential hirings. First, general manager must be a top priority. And because Seattle has neither a GM nor a head coach, it says to me that they're looking for a similar formula that put the Seahawks in the forefront of the league in the early Aughts. Getting someone with mass amounts of experience and put them in either front office GM duties or have a combination of coach/GM or coach/player personnel guy. Someone like Holmgren, but not Holmgren. Someone who has been to the Super Bowl and knows what type of organization it will take to lead them to the promise land. Here are a few names:

Jon Gruden. I know he's tied up with ESPN, but you can't say that Paul Allen won't be able to lure Gruden out of ESPN.

Bill Cowher. I know he's the remembering face of the Pittsburgh Steelers and former enemy No.1, but he's been there and won a ring. He knows what it takes to make a good team. He is old school and he's a good defensive minded guy. Something the Seahawks have always needed.

Tony Dungy. Once again, someone who has led a team to the promise land. A great fit for Seattle. A bit passive, but very intuitive and very insightful. Someone who would bring football intelligence.

Brian Billick. Again, he's in the booth right now but he's also won one. A similar situation to the rest.

What do these men have in common? They're proven head coaches who have big giant rings around their their fingers.

But here is a little nugget that I'm learning. Pete Carroll from USC? Who knows. I hear they're after him.

2009 in retrospect

Too much Tiger? Too much Tebow? Too much Yanks? Say so long to 2009 with me.

The thing I took away from this year most is the way that sports is now blending in with more entertainment. WWE was ahead of the curve 10 years ago by stating that it wasn't sports, but sports entertainment. We have no choice but to slowly realize that all sports is now hitting a gray area in out public eyes. The overexposure of the Tiger Woods' issue. The constant celebrity dating within the Yankees clubhouse. The web making regular people celebrities. Tim Tebow being the poster child of everything that is great in sports all while representing everything that is extremely annoying at the same time (how can a good wholesome quarterback who gives of himself by going on missions in the off-season be a public enemy No. 1 outside of Florida?). ESPN is synonymous with E!, Bravo, WE, and any other stupid network that focuses on the image of what it's portraying versus the end product that should be focused on.

But with the Tiger issue. His infidelity is the most over-hyped and over-covered media story in the entire decade. It says a lot when Tiger got more coverage than 9/11. But this is a blessing in disguise for him (at least professionally). What this will do for him is refocus his game. In the last two years, Tiger seemed human. He seemed beatable. Yes, he had a terrible knee, but there was a false hope amongst the field that they could hang with him. We all know now that it wasn't his injury, but his lust for the ladies. I believe the PGA will benefit most from this ironically. For those of you who don't believe golf will prevail, but yet crumble, you know nothing about golf.

When any great player dominates their respective sport, it is easy to look beyond the rest of the league, association, and/or teams and players. When Michael Jordan was dominating the NBA, nobody considered that the 90's saw 10 of its top 50 players play and only two of them won an NBA title, solely because of MJ. He was so good that he made the NBA better because of it. We are seeing the benefits of the MJ era now. Basketball is better than ever and it's because of MJ. He elevated everyone's game so much that the result is Kobe, LeBron, D-Wade, Kevin Durant, etc. If MJ stayed retired after his first retirement, would the NBA be as good as it is now? When he retired the first time, the NBA was able to catch its breath. Even though the ratings plummeted, the play of the game increased. It's like the old adage of playing someone better will make you better. It's the same case in golf. Everyone in the PGA will be able to show what they've learned from losing to Tiger for so long. We're going to see a crap-shoot of players making runs that would normally overlooked because of Tiger. There won't be anymore stupid frat boys getting drunk as if they were in a Happy Gilmore scene.

And then he'll return. More focused. And even deadlier. And everyone will benefit from the increase of play from the likes of Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia and of course everyone's Lovable Lefty. Take a quick page out of Kobe Bryant's rape case a few years ago. When he returned, he was better and faster and stronger. Why? It's because he focused all of his energy to getting better because that's a way out. An outlet. Tiger will do the same and Tiger will break Jack Nicholas' record within 5 years. Easily.

You know the funny thing about the NFL is? Is that the NFL is sort of like the popular kid at school where everyone likes him; he dates the hottest chicks, he gets good grades, and he's the star jock and is in the newspapers all the time. The problem is though, he knows it. That's the NFL. It knows it's the best league in America right now and it's overthinking itself. That's all I'll say about it. I watch it, I love it. But I can't watch it 24/7 like the NFL wants us all to do. To over-analyze everything about it. To talk and talk and talk about Bellichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2. To contemplate about going to a 17 games season. It's the natural evolution of sport and if we were getting scientific or philosophical about the theory of evolution, the NFL just stood upright and claimed that it's America's game. In 50 years, football will be known as America's pastime, which is said because I always kind of liked how baseball was.

For me, 2009 was forgettable in the NFL. Where to begin about my beloved Seahawks? To begin with, I think we as fans get a break here. I don't like what Deion Branch said about the fan base because the 12th Man is here. The difference is the irony of it all. If this season happened in 1999, their 5-11 record would be forgivable. We, as football fans, have also evolved. We have expectations. We want to win mainly because we know what it feels like to win. Like losing your virginity. You want more and when you don't get it, you feel like a worthless piece. Like flying in first class for a couple of years, but then getting bumped to coach (sorry Bill Simmons, I ripped that off you, but it's such a great analogy. If you ever read this, not sure why you would, but if you do, I'll give you your ups.).

But this pre-season, the Seahawks on paper didn't look as good as we thought. The writing was on the wall and we didn't want to look at what color it was. We thought because we had a healthy receiving corps and a new hot shot receiver to go along with a healthy receiving corps, a new young buck linebacker, and a new vibrant head coach, we all thought it was a coast and a give in to the post season again. Me included. We were for the first time delusional. But let this be a lesson to us. Just because we are loyal, we cannot, I repeat, cannot be out of our minds and incomprehensible. We have to be harsher on these guys. We deserve better. I refuse to watch the Seahawks crumble to mediocrity, irrelevance or worse, a laughing stock, a place that 'Hawks fans know. So this offseason, we as fans can't treat the Seahawks the same way we treated the Mariners or the Sonics. We can't be soft fans or we'll have a soft team. We can't have that liberal attitude of "at least we were good for a while and at least we have soccer now." That's bullshit to me. We should demand better so we'll reap the benefit of having a good team. No longer when we leave the area and express how much we are Seahawk fans will we be laughed at. I want us 'Hawk fans to stand up and say "This isn't good enough. 5-11 is never good enough. 13-3 isn't even good enough. We want that Super Bowl NOW!"

So now, the Seahawks have the #6 and #14 picks in the draft. Getting an offensive lineman is a give in. Many of those think a quarterback should be next, however, if C.J. Spiller or Javid Best is at 14, I say we take them. People gave the Titans grief for taking Chris Johnson out of East Carolina when they had two running backs. Look how that worked out for them.

The MLB got the Yankees back on track. Which is weird because without hating the Yankees, watching baseball kind of seemed like there was something lacking this decade. Hating them was fun. It makes watching baseball a little more fun. And I thought I'd never say this, but I'm happy they won. The universe is back to where it should be. The Yankees suck because they're good. And the Mariners are coming back. I can't believe the Mariners are having the offseason they are having right now. Getting both Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee is like getting a good job and then getting a really hot girlfriend at the same time. Neither may last, but at least it'll be a good summer.

And we all know the BCS is flawed. Just watched BSU beat TCU in the BCS. All these acronyms are making me SICK. But gotta hand it to BSU. They showed up. TCU didn't. And in a perfect world where a plus one playoff game would decide between the two, BSU would be playing the winner of Texas and Alabama. I honestly don't think BSU would win and if you do, you're delusional (see above).

Two-thousand and nine also saw the return (of sorts) of the University of Washington and the hope that is behind both Steve Sarkisian and Jake Locker. The following year will be a different year. The Huskies will have a great shot at finishing the year in the top 10 and possibly the Rose Bowl. I know that's far fetched from a season ago, but they have a chip on their shoulder. Word is that Locker's reason for coming back is to beat Oregon. When you have those sort of goals, watch out Oregon.

Now on to the NBA. I am reading "The Book of Basketball" by Bill Simmons. An ESPN writer who is probably the best sports writer today. I'm talking pure sports writing. None of that basketball beat writer for the LA Times or the Seattle Times. I'm talking about a sort of poetry that only comes along once in a while from someone who truly loves the game of basketball. Reading Simmons is like reading your own inner thoughts on paper. I don't know how many times I sat on the toilet reading "The Book of Basketball" thinking "I totally know what he means!" or "I was thinking that too!". Weird. I feel like he has tapped into all of the basketball purists and read their minds, including mine. When the Sonics were stolen away I haven't been able to think about basketball the way I used to. Now, Simmons is showing me a new light. Thank you.

(Speaking of the Sonics. For all of you who said, "F@*k the Sonics, they suck anyway." Look no further than the NBA standings in your newspaper and you'll find OKC in 3rd place with a pretty good record. And oh yeah, Durant might win a scoring title soon. Like, really soon. So thank you Queen Christine Gregiore, Howard Schultz, Greg Nickels, Clay Bennett, David Stern and the rest of you pathetic sports fans that didn't give to shits about the Sonics because they sucked at the time. Even though YOU let the winning-est sports franchise in Seattle history leave because YOU wanted the money to go somewhere else like...where again? Have you seen Key Arena lately? Have you seen the unemployment lately? Oh yeah, having the Sonics in town definitely wouldn't help either of those. Let's put the money into wasted spending and continue to watch OKC reap the benefits of a good basketball team. But hey, at least we have the Seahawks! Oh yeah, they're not any good. At least we have the Sounders! Oh yeah, they can't score any goals. At least we have the Mariners! Oh yeah, it took all decade for them to get good again.)

Let's just hope 2010 will be a good start to a new decade. We'll need it.